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Field Notes · OpenFEMA · Case file DR-EM-FM

Federal
Disaster
Country

The Stafford Act built a machine for turning places into disasters on paper. Since 1953 it has stamped roughly ~68,000 county-area declarations - and a hard core of rural counties keeps coming back, filing the same claim decade after decade, living in near-permanent federal disaster while the pace only quickens.

Declarations per decade, 1950s → 2020s. Illustrative.
~68K federal disaster declarations ~4,900 distinct disasters 1953-present Illustrative
Fig. 01 - Exhibit: the federal footprint

The map of the machine

Declarations by state, 1953-present

Darker states have been declared a federal disaster more often. Texas, Oklahoma and Kentucky run the raw count - big, storm-belt states with hundreds of counties, each one its own line on the ledger every time a system crosses. But raw totals just trace the map of America itself. Divide by population and the order inverts: the Dakotas, West Virginia and Vermont, not the coasts, are the places living most permanently under a federal declaration.

Alabama: 1,700 declarations Alaska: 260 declarations Arizona: 300 declarations Colorado: 560 declarations Florida: 1,950 declarations Georgia: 1,850 declarations Indiana: 1,020 declarations Kansas: 1,180 declarations Maine: 480 declarations Massachusetts: 460 declarations Minnesota: 1,200 declarations New Jersey: 520 declarations North Carolina: 1,380 declarations North Dakota: 880 declarations Oklahoma: 3,100 declarations Pennsylvania: 1,080 declarations South Dakota: 900 declarations Texas: 4,900 declarations Wyoming: 280 declarations Connecticut: 300 declarations Missouri: 2,300 declarations West Virginia: 1,500 declarations Illinois: 1,400 declarations New Mexico: 620 declarations Arkansas: 1,600 declarations California: 2,600 declarations Delaware: 90 declarations District of Columbia: 40 declarations Hawaii: 150 declarations Iowa: 1,300 declarations Kentucky: 2,700 declarations Maryland: 360 declarations Michigan: 640 declarations Mississippi: 1,800 declarations Montana: 700 declarations New Hampshire: 340 declarations New York: 1,900 declarations Ohio: 1,120 declarations Oregon: 720 declarations Tennessee: 1,750 declarations Utah: 200 declarations Virginia: 2,400 declarations Washington: 980 declarations Wisconsin: 860 declarations Nebraska: 1,250 declarations South Carolina: 780 declarations Idaho: 360 declarations Nevada: 180 declarations Vermont: 420 declarations Louisiana: 2,050 declarations Rhode Island: 110 declarations
Illustrative Illustrative. State geometry is real (US Census / us-atlas); the counts are stand-ins. The 50 states + DC shown here hold 57,520 of the ~68K total; territories (Puerto Rico and others), which the Albers projection cannot inset, carry the rest. See Methodology.

Adjusted for population

Declarations per 100,000 residents. The order inverts: small, rural, disaster-prone states carry the heaviest federal footprint per person.

  1. North Dakota 112.6 / 100k
  2. South Dakota 98.3 / 100k
  3. West Virginia 84.3 / 100k
  4. Oklahoma 77.5 / 100k
  5. Vermont 64.6 / 100k
  6. Nebraska 63.1 / 100k
  7. Montana 61.4 / 100k
  8. Mississippi 60.9 / 100k
Full table - all 50 states and DC
RankStateDeclarationsDisastersPer 100kTop hazard
01 Texas 4,900 340 15.8 Severe Storm
02 Oklahoma 3,100 190 77.5 Severe Storm
03 Kentucky 2,700 150 59.3 Flood
04 California 2,600 200 6.6 Fire
05 Virginia 2,400 140 27.4 Severe Storm
06 Missouri 2,300 150 37.1 Severe Storm
07 Louisiana 2,050 130 44.5 Hurricane
08 Florida 1,950 130 8.7 Hurricane
09 New York 1,900 120 9.6 Severe Storm
10 Georgia 1,850 120 16.8 Severe Storm
11 Mississippi 1,800 120 60.9 Severe Storm
12 Tennessee 1,750 110 24.9 Severe Storm
13 Alabama 1,700 110 33.5 Severe Storm
14 Arkansas 1,600 110 52.6 Severe Storm
15 West Virginia 1,500 100 84.3 Flood
16 Illinois 1,400 90 11.1 Severe Storm
17 North Carolina 1,380 95 12.9 Hurricane
18 Iowa 1,300 80 40.6 Severe Storm
19 Nebraska 1,250 75 63.1 Severe Storm
20 Minnesota 1,200 75 20.9 Severe Storm
21 Kansas 1,180 80 40 Severe Storm
22 Ohio 1,120 70 9.5 Severe Storm
23 Pennsylvania 1,080 70 8.3 Severe Storm
24 Indiana 1,020 65 14.8 Severe Storm
25 Washington 980 75 12.5 Flood
26 South Dakota 900 60 98.3 Severe Storm
27 North Dakota 880 55 112.6 Flood
28 Wisconsin 860 55 14.5 Severe Storm
29 South Carolina 780 60 14.5 Hurricane
30 Oregon 720 60 16.8 Fire
31 Montana 700 55 61.4 Fire
32 Michigan 640 50 6.4 Severe Storm
33 New Mexico 620 55 29.4 Fire
34 Colorado 560 55 9.5 Fire
35 New Jersey 520 45 5.6 Severe Storm
36 Maine 480 45 34.5 Severe Storm
37 Massachusetts 460 40 6.6 Severe Storm
38 Vermont 420 40 64.6 Flood
39 Idaho 360 40 18.5 Fire
40 Maryland 360 35 5.8 Severe Storm
41 New Hampshire 340 35 24.1 Severe Storm
42 Connecticut 300 30 8.3 Severe Storm
43 Arizona 300 40 4.1 Fire
44 Wyoming 280 35 47.8 Severe Storm
45 Alaska 260 35 35.4 Flood
46 Utah 200 30 5.9 Fire
47 Nevada 180 25 5.6 Fire
48 Hawaii 150 25 10.4 Coastal Storm
49 Rhode Island 110 18 10 Severe Storm
50 Delaware 90 20 8.7 Severe Storm
51 District of Columbia 40 12 5.9 Severe Storm
Fig. 02 - Exhibit: raw count vs per-person load

Two states, same nation

Declarations vs per 100k

The map tells two stories that never agree. Plot every state by its raw declaration count against its per-capita load and they pull apart into two populations: a low, wide band of big states along the bottom - lots of declarations spread thin across millions of people - and a steep left-hand wall of small rural states carrying enormous federal exposure per resident. Texas and North Dakota sit at opposite corners of the same chart.

0 30 60 90 120 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000 per 100k total declarations → Oklahoma: 3,100 declarations, 77.5 per 100k Kentucky: 2,700 declarations, 59.3 per 100k Virginia: 2,400 declarations, 27.4 per 100k Missouri: 2,300 declarations, 37.1 per 100k Louisiana: 2,050 declarations, 44.5 per 100k Florida: 1,950 declarations, 8.7 per 100k New York: 1,900 declarations, 9.6 per 100k Georgia: 1,850 declarations, 16.8 per 100k Mississippi: 1,800 declarations, 60.9 per 100k Tennessee: 1,750 declarations, 24.9 per 100k Alabama: 1,700 declarations, 33.5 per 100k Arkansas: 1,600 declarations, 52.6 per 100k Illinois: 1,400 declarations, 11.1 per 100k North Carolina: 1,380 declarations, 12.9 per 100k Iowa: 1,300 declarations, 40.6 per 100k Nebraska: 1,250 declarations, 63.1 per 100k Minnesota: 1,200 declarations, 20.9 per 100k Kansas: 1,180 declarations, 40 per 100k Ohio: 1,120 declarations, 9.5 per 100k Pennsylvania: 1,080 declarations, 8.3 per 100k Indiana: 1,020 declarations, 14.8 per 100k Washington: 980 declarations, 12.5 per 100k South Dakota: 900 declarations, 98.3 per 100k Wisconsin: 860 declarations, 14.5 per 100k South Carolina: 780 declarations, 14.5 per 100k Oregon: 720 declarations, 16.8 per 100k Montana: 700 declarations, 61.4 per 100k Michigan: 640 declarations, 6.4 per 100k New Mexico: 620 declarations, 29.4 per 100k Colorado: 560 declarations, 9.5 per 100k New Jersey: 520 declarations, 5.6 per 100k Maine: 480 declarations, 34.5 per 100k Massachusetts: 460 declarations, 6.6 per 100k Vermont: 420 declarations, 64.6 per 100k Idaho: 360 declarations, 18.5 per 100k Maryland: 360 declarations, 5.8 per 100k New Hampshire: 340 declarations, 24.1 per 100k Connecticut: 300 declarations, 8.3 per 100k Arizona: 300 declarations, 4.1 per 100k Wyoming: 280 declarations, 47.8 per 100k Alaska: 260 declarations, 35.4 per 100k Utah: 200 declarations, 5.9 per 100k Nevada: 180 declarations, 5.6 per 100k Hawaii: 150 declarations, 10.4 per 100k Rhode Island: 110 declarations, 10 per 100k Delaware: 90 declarations, 8.7 per 100k District of Columbia: 40 declarations, 5.9 per 100k Texas: 4,900 declarations, 15.8 per 100k TX 15.8/100k California: 2,600 declarations, 6.6 per 100k CA 6.6/100k West Virginia: 1,500 declarations, 84.3 per 100k WV 84.3/100k North Dakota: 880 declarations, 112.6 per 100k ND 112.6/100k
Each dot is one state. Four extremes are labeled; hover any dot for its figures, or read the full table under Fig. 01. Illustrative counts on real state identities.
Fig. 03 - Exhibit: the accelerating ledger

The curve bends up

By decade, two series

Declarations pile into the recent decades: the 2010s alone logged more area declarations than the entire twentieth century of the program - a roughly 85x jump from the 1950s. But distinct disasters grew only about 8x over the same span. The widening gap is the real finding: a single modern disaster now names far more counties than one did seventy years ago - the ledger grew faster than the weather.

0 5K 10K 15K 20K 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 21,250 decl. 1,010 disasters
Counties per disaster climbed from ~1.8 to ~18. Left axis counts area declarations; the right-axis line counts distinct disaster numbers. The 2020s point is a partial, still-open decade. Illustrative counts.
Fig. 04 - Exhibit: the repeat filers

The ledger of the returned

Most-declared counties

A disaster declaration is supposed to be exceptional. For these counties it is a standing entry. Each has been named in a distinct federal disaster dozens of times across the 73-year record - Appalachian flood country and the eastern lip of Tornado Alley, declared, rebuilt, and declared again on almost a two-year cycle.

  1. 01
    Pike CountyKY 61 disasters
    Mostly flood · worst year 2022
  2. 02
    Harlan CountyKY 57 disasters
    Mostly flood · worst year 2022
  3. 03
    Le Flore CountyOK 55 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2019
  4. 04
    McCurtain CountyOK 53 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2019
  5. 05
    Hidalgo CountyTX 52 disasters
    Mostly hurricane · worst year 2020
  6. 06
    Muskogee CountyOK 50 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2019
  7. 07
    Cameron CountyTX 49 disasters
    Mostly hurricane · worst year 2020
  8. 08
    Franklin CountyKY 48 disasters
    Mostly flood · worst year 2021
  9. 09
    Sequoyah CountyOK 47 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2015
  10. 10
    Craig CountyOK 46 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2019
  11. 11
    Perry CountyKY 45 disasters
    Mostly flood · worst year 2022
  12. 12
    St. Louis CountyMO 45 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2019
  13. 13
    Adair CountyOK 44 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2019
  14. 14
    McDowell CountyWV 43 disasters
    Mostly flood · worst year 2001
  15. 15
    Cherokee CountyOK 43 disasters
    Mostly severe storm · worst year 2019
  16. 16
    Washington CountyMO 42 disasters
    Mostly flood · worst year 2017

Ranked by distinct disasterNumbers naming the county. A single disaster can add many county rows at once; this counts the events, not the paperwork.

Fig. 05 - Exhibit: the disaster calendar

A season for it

Declarations by month

Federal disaster is seasonal work. Declarations cluster into two peaks - the spring and early-summer severe-storm run that alone accounts for about 36% of the year, and the late-summer hurricane window that reaches its own crest in August and September. Between them sits a July lull; on either side, the quiet deep-winter trough.

Jan: 3,400 declarations (5.1%) - Winter trough Jan Feb: 3,100 declarations (4.6%) - Winter trough Feb Mar: 5,200 declarations (7.8%) - Spring ramp Mar Apr: 7,800 declarations (11.6%) - Severe-storm peak Apr May: 8,600 declarations (12.8%) - Severe-storm peak 12.8% May Jun: 7,400 declarations (11.0%) - Severe-storm peak Jun Jul: 6,200 declarations (9.3%) - Summer Jul Aug: 6,800 declarations (10.1%) - Hurricane season 10.1% Aug Sep: 6,400 declarations (9.6%) - Hurricane season Sep Oct: 5,000 declarations (7.5%) - Hurricane season Oct Nov: 3,600 declarations (5.4%) - Autumn decline Nov Dec: 3,500 declarations (5.2%) - Winter trough Dec
Darker months carry more declarations. Two peaks, one calendar: severe storms in spring, hurricanes in late summer. Illustrative counts.
  1. Jan 3,400 5.1%
  2. Feb 3,100 4.6%
  3. Mar 5,200 7.8%
  4. Apr 7,800 11.6%
  5. May 8,600 12.8%
  6. Jun 7,400 11.0%
  7. Jul 6,200 9.3%
  8. Aug 6,800 10.1%
  9. Sep 6,400 9.6%
  10. Oct 5,000 7.5%
  11. Nov 3,600 5.4%
  12. Dec 3,500 5.2%
Fig. 06 - Exhibit: the declared hazard

What gets declared

By type & hazard

There are three ways to declare, and one does the heavy lifting: the Major Disaster unlocks the full Stafford Act toolkit and carries most of the count. Underneath the paperwork, the weather is lopsided too - storm-family hazards alone drive about 62% of every declaration on the books.

Three ways to declare
DR 76.5% EM 16.9%
  • DR Major Disaster 52,000 · 76.5% The workhorse: unlocks Individual and Public Assistance when an event overwhelms a state.
  • EM Emergency 11,500 · 16.9% A faster, lighter declaration for imminent threats; the 2020 pandemic response ran through these.
  • FM Fire Management 4,500 · 6.6% Wildfire-specific grants to fight a fire as it burns, not to rebuild after it.
By incident type
  • Severe Storm 26,000 · 38.2%
  • Hurricane 11,000 · 16.2%
  • Flood 8,200 · 12.1%
  • Fire 6,500 · 9.6%
  • Snow / Ice Storm 4,800 · 7.1%
  • Tornado 3,400 · 5.0%
  • Biological (COVID-19) 3,100 · 4.6%
  • Coastal Storm 1,700 · 2.5%
  • Drought / Freeze 1,500 · 2.2%
  • Other 1,800 · 2.6%

Storm-family hazards (severe storm, hurricane, tornado, coastal) are drawn in signal blue; every hazard also carries its count and share, so color is never the only label. Illustrative counts.

Fig. 07 - Exhibit: where the money goes

What a declaration unlocks

Programs, share of all declarations

A declaration is a key, and it opens more than one door. Almost every one turns on Public Assistance - the money that reimburses governments for debris and rebuilding public infrastructure. Far fewer put cash in residents' hands: direct Individual Assistance rides on barely a fifth of declarations. Most federal disaster money rebuilds the public works, not the households.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Public Assistance: 54,000 declarations (79%) - money for governments PA 79% Hazard Mitigation: 48,500 declarations (71%) - money for governments HM 71% Individual Assistance: 14,200 declarations (21%) - money for residents IA 21% Individuals & Households: 12,600 declarations (19%) - money for residents IH 19%
Flags overlap - a single declaration can unlock several programs, so these shares do not sum to 100%. Each bar is the fraction of all declarations that switched that program on. Illustrative counts.
  • PA Public Assistance Governments Reimburses states, counties and towns for debris removal and rebuilding public infrastructure - the program almost every declaration turns on.
  • HM Hazard Mitigation Governments Grants to build back stronger so the next event does less damage; rides along with most major declarations.
  • IA Individual Assistance Residents Direct help to disaster survivors - housing, grants, crisis counseling. Far rarer than public rebuilding money.
  • IH Individuals & Households Residents The housing-and-needs arm of Individual Assistance: repair grants and temporary shelter paid straight to residents.
Fig. 08 - Exhibit: the reordering mix

Not every hazard is rising

Share shift, pre-2000 vs since

Split the record at the millennium and the mix reorders. Severe storms, wildfire and - entirely new - the pandemic's biological declarations take a growing slice. Flooding's share falls by more than ten points, not because there is less flooding but because everything else grew around it. Each rung below runs from a hazard's early-era share to its recent-era share.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Severe Storm +8 pp Fire +6 pp Biological (COVID-19) +6 pp Hurricane 0 pp Drought / Freeze 0 pp Coastal Storm -1 pp Other -1 pp Tornado -4 pp Snow / Ice Storm -4 pp Flood -11 pp
pp = percentage points of all declarations. A shrinking share does not mean fewer events - only that the hazard's slice of a much larger total got smaller. Illustrative shares, directional not measured.
Cross-reference

Put two states side by side

Compare any two states' declaration profiles - raw count, per-capita load, and the Major / Emergency / Fire split - against the national baseline.

Open the compare tool →
Case notes

Methodology

Notes on the data

The figures on this page derive from OpenFEMA - Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2) (current through 2026 (illustrative stand-in figures)), the federal register of every Stafford Act declaration since the program began in 1953. The dataset's grain is one row per designated area - almost always a county, parish or borough - per disaster, which is why a single hurricane can add dozens of "declarations" at once. Throughout, "declarations" counts those area rows and "disasters" counts distinct disaster numbers.

What's real, what's a stand-in

Every number across all eight exhibits is illustrative. They are hand-authored stand-ins, sized to the shape of the real dataset (~68,000 area declarations, ~4,900 disasters, the real 1953-present span and the real DR / EM / FM type split), but they are not an ingest of the live file. The state scatter, the decade curve, the disaster calendar, the program shares and the era dumbbell are all directional shapes, not measured values - the seasonal twin-peak, the two-fifths-of-declarations spring run, and the roughly-four-in-five Public Assistance rate are plausible, not counted. Anything not backed by a real ingest is badged Illustrative and has a documented swap-point (see the site's HANDOFF.md). We never present curated numbers as real. The state geometry on the map is real (US Census cartographic boundaries via us-atlas); only the shading counts are stand-ins.

What you're not seeing

The Albers-USA map insets Alaska and Hawaii but cannot place the territories, so Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam and the other insular areas - which carry a large share of declarations, Puerto Rico especially after Hurricane Maria - are absent from the map and from the 50-states-plus-DC table. The declaration count is also a measure of federal response, not of damage or death: it reflects which events crossed the threshold for a governor's request and a presidential approval, a bar that has shifted over seventy years. A rising count is partly more weather and partly a wider, more granular declaration net. Dollar losses, approvals versus denials, and per-declaration aid are not in this file.


Generated 2026-07-06 00:00 UTC. Source: OpenFEMA - Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2). Bulk CSV + swap steps in HANDOFF.md.